Gremio vs Fluminense — prediction & probabilities
GremioVS
Fluminense30%
1 — Gremio29%
X41%
2 — FluminenseAdvertisement
OddsWasp confidence: Medium
Probabilities
1 — Gremio
30%
X — Draw
29%
2 — Fluminense
41%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Both teams to score
44%
More markets to explore
Over 1.5 goals
65%
Over 3.5 goals
18%
Double chance: Gremio or draw
59%
Double chance: draw or Fluminense
70%
Double chance: either team to win
71%
No draw & over 2.5 goals
34%
Gremio to win & over 2.5 goals
14%
Fluminense to win & over 2.5 goals
20%
Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals
31%
Expected goals
0.99 : 1.22
Most likely score
0 - 1
Suggested market
Under 2.5 goals (62%)
Market check
| Odds | Market (no-vig) | OddsWasp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 2.55 | 36.4% | 30% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.6% | 29% |
| Fluminense | 2.65 | 35% | 41% |
DraftKings odds via ESPN, captured at the last page refresh (2026-07-22 02:28 UTC). Prices move — always check the current price before acting.
How OddsWasp analyzes this match
Home-field advantage applied
GremioFluminense Attack
Defence
Key statExpected goals: 0.99 vs 1.22
Head-to-head historyGremio won 0, Fluminense won 3 of their last 3 recorded meetings
- 2026-01-28Fluminense2–1
- 2025-12-03Fluminense2–1
- 2025-08-03Fluminense1–0
Ahead of Gremio vs Fluminense, OddsWasp calculated expected goals for both sides from their attack and defence ratings in the Brasileirão Série A.
OddsWasp calculates expected goals at 0.99 for Gremio and 1.22 for Fluminense, translating into probabilities of 30% (home), 29% (draw) and 41% (away).
OddsWasp leans towards Under 2.5 goals (62%). For context, it puts over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams scoring at 44%.
These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).
Advertisement
More matches in this league
FINALBrasileirão Série A
Atlético-MG1
Bahia1✓Under 2.5 goals · 57%
23:30Brasileirão Série A
Coritiba17%
Palmeiras55%MediumPalmeiras to win · 55%
X 28%23:30Brasileirão Série A
Botafogo49%
Vitória28%MediumBoth teams to score — Yes · 61%
X 23%23:30Brasileirão Série A
Corinthians48%
Remo25%MediumUnder 2.5 goals · 59%
X 27%01:30Brasileirão Série A
Chapecoense6%
Flamengo79%HighFlamengo to win · 79%
X 15%01:30Brasileirão Série A
Internacional40%
Cruzeiro34%MediumBoth teams to score — Yes · 55%
X 26%