Atlético-MG vs Bahia — prediction & probabilities

Atlético-MG

VSBrasileirão Série A
21 July 2026 at 23:30 BST

Bahia

42%

1 — Atlético-MG

27%

31%

2 — Bahia

OddsWasp confidence: High

Probabilities

1 — Atlético-MG

42%

X — Draw

27%

2 — Bahia

31%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

Both teams to score

51%

More markets to explore

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Over 3.5 goals

25%

Double chance: Atlético-MG or draw

69%

Double chance: draw or Bahia

58%

Double chance: either team to win

73%

No draw & over 2.5 goals

41%

Atlético-MG to win & over 2.5 goals

24%

Bahia to win & over 2.5 goals

17%

Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals

39%

Expected goals

1.38 : 1.15

Most likely score

1 - 1

Suggested market

Double chance: Atlético-MG or draw (69%)

Market check

	Odds	Market (no-vig)	OddsWasp
Atlético-MG	2.05	44.9%	42%
Draw	3.20	28.8%	27%
Bahia	3.50	26.3%	31%

DraftKings odds via ESPN, captured at the last page refresh (2026-07-18 04:08 UTC). Prices move — always check the current price before acting.

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

Atlético-MGBahia

0.89

Attack

1.21

0.83

Defence

1.07

Key statExpected goals: 1.38 vs 1.15

Head-to-head historyAtlético-MG won 1, Bahia won 1 of their last 2 recorded meetings

2025-11-05Atlético-MG3–0
2025-07-13Bahia2–1

OddsWasp ran this Brasileirão Série A meeting between Atlético-MG and Bahia through its Poisson goal calculation, which weighs each side's scoring and conceding rates.

OddsWasp calculates expected goals at 1.38 for Atlético-MG and 1.15 for Bahia, translating into probabilities of 42% (home), 27% (draw) and 31% (away).

Based on these probabilities, OddsWasp's strongest read is Double chance: Atlético-MG or draw, rated at 69%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 51%.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).