Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury — prediction & probabilities
Connecticut SunVS
Phoenix Mercury52%
Connecticut Sun48%
Phoenix MercuryAdvertisement
OddsWasp confidence: Medium
Probabilities
Connecticut Sun
52%
Phoenix Mercury
48%
Over 164.5 points
63%
More markets to explore
Connecticut Sun to win by 0.5+ points
50%
Phoenix Mercury to win by 0.5+ points
46%
Projected score
85 - 85
Totals line
164.5
Suggested market
Over 164.5 points (63%)
How OddsWasp analyzes this match
Home-field advantage applied
Attack
Defence
Key statExpected points: 85 vs 85
Head-to-head historyConnecticut Sun won 2, Phoenix Mercury won 3 of their last 5 recorded meetings
- 2026-07-19Phoenix Mercury72–63
- 2026-07-18Connecticut Sun96–83
- 2025-09-06Connecticut Sun87–84
- 2025-08-06Phoenix Mercury82–66
- 2025-06-18Phoenix Mercury83–75
OddsWasp projected Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury by blending each team's offensive rating with the opponent's defensive rating, plus home-court advantage in the WNBA.
OddsWasp's projection favours a final around 85-85, which translates to win probabilities of 52% for Connecticut Sun and 48% for Phoenix Mercury.
With a projected total of 170 points, OddsWasp's strongest read is Over 164.5 points at 63%.
These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — single NBA games swing on a handful of possessions. Always gamble responsibly (18+).
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