Gremio vs Sao Paulo — prediction & probabilities
GremioVS
Sao Paulo40%
1 — Gremio29%
X30%
2 — Sao PauloAdvertisement
OddsWasp confidence: Medium
Probabilities
1 — Gremio
40%
X — Draw
29%
2 — Sao Paulo
30%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Both teams to score
43%
More markets to explore
Over 1.5 goals
63%
Over 3.5 goals
17%
Double chance: Gremio or draw
70%
Double chance: draw or Sao Paulo
60%
Double chance: either team to win
71%
No draw & over 2.5 goals
32%
Gremio to win & over 2.5 goals
19%
Sao Paulo to win & over 2.5 goals
13%
Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals
29%
Expected goals
1.17 : 0.96
Most likely score
1 - 0
Suggested market
Under 2.5 goals (64%)
Market check
| Odds | Market (no-vig) | OddsWasp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 2.35 | 39.1% | 40% |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.7% | 29% |
| Sao Paulo | 2.95 | 31.2% | 30% |
DraftKings odds via ESPN, captured at the last page refresh (2026-08-04 05:04 UTC). Prices move — always check the current price before acting.
How OddsWasp analyzes this match
Home-field advantage applied
GremioSao Paulo Attack
Defence
Key statExpected goals: 1.17 vs 0.96
Head-to-head historyGremio won 1, Sao Paulo won 2 of their last 3 recorded meetings
- 2026-02-12Sao Paulo2–0
- 2025-10-16Gremio2–0
- 2025-05-18Sao Paulo2–1
Ahead of Gremio vs Sao Paulo, OddsWasp calculated expected goals for both sides from their attack and defence ratings in the Brasileirão Série A.
OddsWasp gives Gremio a 40% chance of winning, against 30% for Sao Paulo and 29% for a draw. The most probable score is 1-0.
OddsWasp leans towards Under 2.5 goals (64%). For context, it puts over 2.5 goals at 36% and both teams scoring at 43%.
These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).
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