Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti — prediction & probabilities

Matteo ArnaldiMatteo Arnaldi
VSMubadala DC Open
27 July 2026 at 05:00 BST
Lorenzo MusettiLorenzo Musetti
45%
Matteo Arnaldi
55%
Lorenzo Musetti
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OddsWasp confidence: Low

Probabilities

Matteo Arnaldi
45%
Lorenzo Musetti
55%
Straight sets
50%
Match goes the distance
50%
Suggested market
Lorenzo Musetti to win (55%)
OddsWasp confidence
Low

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Neutral venue — no home advantage applied

Matteo Arnaldi Matteo ArnaldiLorenzo Musetti Lorenzo Musetti
1976
Elo rating
2010
Key statWorld ranking: Matteo Arnaldi #33 · Lorenzo Musetti #15
Head-to-head historyNo meetings found in the recent seasons checked

OddsWasp compared Matteo Arnaldi and Lorenzo Musetti using Elo-style strength ratings built from tour-level results (Mubadala DC Open).

OddsWasp's ratings translate into win probabilities of 45% for Matteo Arnaldi and 55% for Lorenzo Musetti.

OddsWasp's strongest read is Lorenzo Musetti to win, rated at 55%.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — tennis matches turn on a handful of points. Always gamble responsibly (18+).

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