Porto vs Alverca — prediction & probabilities

Porto

VSLiga Portugal
9 August 2026 at 18:00 BST

Alverca

55%

1 — Porto

24%

21%

2 — Alverca

Insufficient data

OddsWasp has no rating data for one or both sides here, so the probabilities below reflect venue effects only — not team strength. No pick is published for this match.

Probabilities

1 — Porto

55%

X — Draw

24%

2 — Alverca

21%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

Both teams to score

51%

More markets to explore

Over 1.5 goals

75%

Over 3.5 goals

29%

Double chance: Porto or draw

79%

Double chance: draw or Alverca

45%

Double chance: either team to win

76%

No draw & over 2.5 goals

45%

Porto to win & over 2.5 goals

34%

Alverca to win & over 2.5 goals

11%

Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals

40%

Expected goals

1.74 : 0.98

Most likely score

1 - 0

Market check

	Odds	Market (no-vig)	OddsWasp
Porto	1.17 opened 1.15	78.2%	55%
Draw	6.50	14.1%	24%
Alverca	12.00 opened 14.00	7.7%	21%

DraftKings odds via ESPN, captured at the last page refresh (2026-08-05 06:50 UTC). Prices move — always check the current price before acting.

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

PortoAlverca

1.20

Attack

1.00

0.85

Defence

1.00

Key statExpected goals: 1.74 vs 0.98

Head-to-head historyPorto won 2, Alverca won 0 of their last 2 recorded meetings

2026-05-02Porto1–0
2025-12-22Porto3–0

Ahead of Porto vs Alverca, OddsWasp calculated expected goals for both sides from their attack and defence ratings in the Liga Portugal.

OddsWasp gives Porto a 55% chance of winning, against 21% for Alverca and 24% for a draw. The most probable score is 1-0.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).

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