Fluminense vs Independiente Rivadavia — prediction & probabilities

Fluminense

VSCopa Libertadores
11 August 2026 at 23:00 BST

Independiente Rivadavia

23%

1 — Fluminense

18%

59%

2 — Independiente Rivadavia

OddsWasp confidence: Medium

Probabilities

1 — Fluminense

23%

X — Draw

18%

2 — Independiente Rivadavia

59%

Over 2.5 goals

77%

Both teams to score

72%

More markets to explore

Over 1.5 goals

91%

Over 3.5 goals

58%

Double chance: Fluminense or draw

41%

Double chance: draw or Independiente Rivadavia

77%

Double chance: either team to win

82%

No draw & over 2.5 goals

67%

Fluminense to win & over 2.5 goals

18%

Independiente Rivadavia to win & over 2.5 goals

49%

Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals

66%

Expected goals

1.55 : 2.53

Most likely score

1 - 2

Suggested market

Independiente Rivadavia to win (59%)

Market check

	Odds	Market (no-vig)	OddsWasp
Fluminense	1.61 opened 1.67	57.9%	23%
Draw	3.70	25.1%	18%
Independiente Rivadavia	5.50 opened 4.90	16.9%	59%

Independiente Rivadavia to winEdge on the suggested market: +42.1 ppExpected value per 1 staked: +2.24

DraftKings odds via ESPN, captured at the last page refresh (2026-08-07 02:24 UTC). Prices move — always check the current price before acting.

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

FluminenseIndependiente Rivadavia

1.16

Attack

2.20

1.00

Defence

0.92

Key statExpected goals: 1.55 vs 2.53

Head-to-head historyFluminense won 0, Independiente Rivadavia won 1 of their last 2 recorded meetings (1 draws)

2026-05-07Draw1–1
2026-04-16Independiente Rivadavia2–1

Ahead of Fluminense vs Independiente Rivadavia, OddsWasp calculated expected goals for both sides from their attack and defence ratings in the Copa Libertadores.

OddsWasp gives Fluminense a 23% chance of winning, against 59% for Independiente Rivadavia and 18% for a draw. The most probable score is 1-2.

Based on these probabilities, OddsWasp's strongest read is Independiente Rivadavia to win, rated at 59%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 77% and both teams to score at 72%.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).

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