Lyon vs Sparta Prague — prediction & probabilities

Lyon

VSUEFA Champions League Qualifying
11 August 2026 at 20:00 BST

Sparta Prague

44%

1 — Lyon

26%

30%

2 — Sparta Prague

Insufficient data

OddsWasp has no rating data for one or both sides here, so the probabilities below reflect venue effects only — not team strength. No pick is published for this match.

Probabilities

1 — Lyon

44%

X — Draw

26%

2 — Sparta Prague

30%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

Both teams to score

52%

More markets to explore

Over 1.5 goals

73%

Over 3.5 goals

26%

Double chance: Lyon or draw

70%

Double chance: draw or Sparta Prague

56%

Double chance: either team to win

74%

No draw & over 2.5 goals

42%

Lyon to win & over 2.5 goals

25%

Sparta Prague to win & over 2.5 goals

17%

Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals

40%

Expected goals

1.45 : 1.15

Most likely score

1 - 1

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

LyonSparta Prague

1.00

Attack

1.00

Defence

1.00

Key statExpected goals: 1.45 vs 1.15

Head-to-head historyLyon won 0, Sparta Prague won 1 of their last 1 recorded meetings

2026-08-04Sparta Prague2–1

OddsWasp ran this UEFA Champions League Qualifying meeting between Lyon and Sparta Prague through its Poisson goal calculation, which weighs each side's scoring and conceding rates.

OddsWasp estimates a 44% chance of a home win, 26% for the draw and 30% for an away win, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).